They’re second in the Bundesliga, two points behind Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s side, fresh off last season’s DFB-Pokal triumph, has been a revelation again, losing just one league game all year – a 3-2 thriller to Bayern back in September where Jamal Musiala bagged a brace. Bayern's own record stands at 19 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses from 25 matches, accumulating 61 points. Those two losses, a shock 1-0 at Augsburg and a rather meek 2-1 capitulation at Leipzig, have kept the door ajar for Leverkusen.
Harry Kane, as expected, is still doing Harry Kane things. He’s got 28 goals in 25 league appearances, putting him on pace for 38, which would smash his own Bundesliga record of 36 from last season. It’s an insane return, especially considering he’s also chipped in with 7 assists. Thomas Müller, still pulling strings at 36, has found a new lease on life under manager Julian Nagelsmann, registering 9 assists, mostly to Kane. But the team's defensive solidity has wavered. They’ve conceded 26 goals, which is five more than Leverkusen and eight more than Stuttgart, who are surprisingly third. Dayot Upamecano, despite his flashes of brilliance, still looks prone to a costly error, and Matthijs de Ligt has been in and out of the lineup with minor knocks.
Nagelsmann’s tactical setup this season has leaned heavily into a 4-2-3-1, prioritizing quick transitions and exploiting Kane’s hold-up play. Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sané have been tasked with stretching defenses wide, but their end product has been inconsistent. Sané has 6 goals and 4 assists, a dip from last year's numbers. Mathys Tel, the young Frenchman, has been a bright spot, scoring 8 goals primarily from the bench, often coming on to inject pace when games get stale. His 0.9 goals per 90 minutes is frankly ridiculous.
The Champions League run has been…complicated. They topped their group comfortably enough, beating Manchester United twice (4-1 and 2-0) and cruising past Galatasaray and Copenhagen. Kane scored 6 goals in the group stage, naturally. But the Round of 16 draw pitted them against Arsenal, a rematch of last season's quarter-final clash where Bayern edged them out on penalties.
The first leg at the Emirates was a tense 1-1 draw. Bukayo Saka put Arsenal ahead in the 28th minute, but Kane, from the penalty spot in the 75th, leveled it after a questionable handball call against William Saliba. Here's my hot take: Bayern didn't look like a team truly *dominating* that game. They often seemed reactive, absorbing pressure rather than dictating play. That's a worrying trend against elite opposition.
Now, about those key signings. Bayern dipped into the market this past summer, spending a hefty €70 million on Fiorentina’s defensive midfielder Sofyan Amrabat. The idea was to bring in a destroyer, someone to shield the back four and add steel alongside Joshua Kimmich. Amrabat has been… okay. He’s made 18 appearances, averaging 3.1 tackles per 90, but his passing sometimes lacks the zip needed to ignite attacks, and he's picked up 7 yellow cards. He’s not quite the major factor many expected.
Then there’s the €35 million acquisition of Nico Williams from Athletic Bilbao. The Spanish winger was supposed to add pace and directness, particularly on the left flank. He’s shown flashes – a brilliant solo goal against Bochum and a couple of assists in the Champions League group stage – but has struggled for consistent starts due to Coman's presence and the occasional tactical shift to accommodate Tel. Williams has 4 goals and 3 assists across all competitions in 21 appearances, only 11 of which were starts. He needs more time, but the clock at Bayern ticks faster than anywhere else.
Squad depth is becoming a real concern, especially in midfield. Kimmich and Amrabat are the primary defensive midfield pairing. Leon Goretzka, plagued by minor muscle issues, has only started 12 league games. When one of the mainstays is out, the drop-off is noticeable. Konrad Laimer provides energy, but lacks the creative spark.
At the back, while Alphonso Davies remains a world-class left-back, his overlapping runs often leave too much space in behind, which good teams exploit. Noussair Mazraoui has been solid at right-back, but Benjamin Pavard’s departure last season for Manchester City has left a void in versatility. Kim Min-jae, the other major defensive signing from 2024, has been reliable but not dominant.
Look, this isn’t a bad Bayern team by any stretch. They’re still in two major competitions, and Kane is a cheat code. But the aura of invincibility, the sheer dominance, it’s not quite there anymore. They’re grinding more, relying on individual brilliance more. Nagelsmann’s tenure, now in its third season, will be defined by these next two months.
My bold prediction? Bayern will edge Arsenal in the Champions League, 2-1 at the Allianz. But they’ll fall short in the Bundesliga, with Leverkusen holding on by a single point. And that will set off another summer of intense scrutiny in Bavaria.
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