Ty Simpson stood tall at Alabama's Pro Day, delivering passes with a confidence that bordered on defiant. He'd just wrapped up his final chance to impress NFL scouts, and the message he sent was clear: "I'm absolutely a first-round pick." That's a bold declaration from a quarterback who threw just 57 passes in his Crimson Tide career, completing 35 of them for 391 yards and three touchdowns.
Real talk: Simpson's college resume doesn't scream top-32 selection. His most significant action came in mop-up duty or against overmatched opponents. He saw snaps in just four games in 2022, completing 4 of 5 passes against Utah State in the season opener. In 2023, he got a bit more run, going 6-for-10 for 73 yards against Middle Tennessee State and later 11-for-20 for 141 yards and a score against Chattanooga. Those aren't the numbers you typically associate with a future franchise quarterback. Bryce Young, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, threw for over 8,200 yards and 79 touchdowns in his Alabama career. Mac Jones, a first-rounder in 2021, had a 4,500-yard, 41-touchdown season. Simpson’s production simply doesn't compare.
Here's the thing: NFL teams draft on projection as much as production, especially at quarterback. Simpson was a five-star recruit out of Martin, Tennessee, ranked as the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback in the 2022 class by 247Sports. He has the ideal NFL frame at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, and a live arm. Scouts saw the athleticism and arm talent in high school, which is why he was so coveted. Think about Will Levis, who went No. 33 overall in 2023. His college stats at Kentucky weren't eye-popping – 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2022 – but his physical tools and pro-style offense experience were enough for the Titans to take a swing.
But Levis also had two full seasons as a starter in the SEC, facing elite competition week in and week out. Simpson has a fraction of that experience. His Pro Day performance was solid, showcasing his arm strength and accuracy on scripted throws. He reportedly ran a 40-yard dash in the 4.5-second range, which is excellent for a quarterback. He's clearly put in the work. Yet, the leap from a handful of garbage-time snaps to an "absolutely" first-round talent is enormous. I'd argue it’s a bigger jump than any prospect has successfully made in recent memory. No matter how good a Pro Day is, it can't fully compensate for a lack of game film against high-level defenses.
Alabama quarterbacks often get a bump in the draft simply because they played for Nick Saban. The program develops pro-ready talent, and NFL scouts trust the coaching and preparation. Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Bryce Young – all first-rounders in recent years. But each of them had extensive starting experience and Heisman-caliber seasons. Simpson doesn't have that pedigree. He didn't win the starting job over Jalen Milroe last season, even with Milroe's early-season struggles. That's a red flag, no matter how much raw talent Simpson possesses. Being a backup at Alabama is not the same as being a starting quarterback in the SEC.
Look, I appreciate Simpson's confidence. You have to believe in yourself at that level. But a first-round pick needs to be someone a team feels comfortable handing the keys to relatively soon. They need a track record of handling pressure, making reads, and leading an offense. Simpson simply hasn't had the opportunity to demonstrate those traits consistently. He's a project, and first-round picks are rarely pure projects unless they are truly generational talents like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen coming out of smaller schools.
My bold prediction: Ty Simpson will hear his name called on day two, likely in the third or fourth round, as a developmental prospect with high upside. He's got the tools, but the NFL is a "show me" league, and he just hasn't shown enough yet to warrant a top-32 selection.