Ty Simpson truly believes he's a first-round NFL Draft pick. He said it himself after Alabama's Pro Day, telling reporters he's "absolutely" a lock for the opening night. You gotta respect the confidence, especially from a guy who just spent three years in Tuscaloosa without ever being the guy. But here's the thing: NFL general managers typically don't draft a quarterback in the first round based on a Pro Day performance or a few impressive throws in drills. They draft them on tape, on production, on leading a team to wins.
Simpson's college resume at Alabama is, well, thin. Over three seasons, he threw for a grand total of 566 yards. Compare that to Jalen Milroe, who put up 2,834 yards and 23 touchdowns just last season. Simpson's best statistical game came against Chattanooga in 2023, where he completed 15 of 23 passes for 158 yards and an interception. He had one start in his career, against USF in 2023, completing 5-of-9 passes for 73 yards before Milroe took over the starting job for good. That's not exactly the kind of production that screams "first-round talent" in the SEC, where quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels threw for over 3,800 yards and 40 touchdowns at LSU last year.
Pro Days are funny. They're glorified workouts where everyone looks like a superstar because there's no pass rush, no coverage, no real consequences. Simpson reportedly threw the ball well, showing off his arm strength and accuracy on scripted plays. Scouts were apparently impressed with his footwork and the velocity on his deep balls. That's all good, and it certainly helps his stock as a potential mid-round pick. But remember Malik Willis a couple of years ago? He lit up his Pro Day, showed off a cannon, and ended up going in the third round to the Titans. The NFL is littered with guys who looked great in shorts and a t-shirt but couldn't translate it to Sundays. Real talk: if an NFL team is truly considering a quarterback in the first round, they need to see a body of work, not just a highlight reel from an uncontested practice.
Alabama has produced some serious NFL talent at quarterback, no doubt. Tua Tagovailoa went fifth overall in 2020, and Mac Jones was a first-rounder in 2021. Even Bryce Young was the No. 1 overall pick last year. But all those guys had Heisman trophies or national championships on their resume, not to mention multiple seasons as the undisputed starter, putting up huge numbers against elite competition. Simpson, for all his potential and physical tools, doesn't have that. He sat behind Young, then competed with Milroe. He chose to stay at Alabama, which is admirable, but it also meant he never got the sustained playing time to prove he could consistently perform under pressure. My hot take? Simpson's confidence is a good thing for his mental makeup, but it's wildly out of step with how the NFL actually evaluates first-round quarterbacks. He's a project, a developmental guy, at best.
Look, Simpson has talent. He's got the size at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, and a good arm. He's been coached by Nick Saban, which counts for something. But claiming "absolutely" a first-round pick with his college production? That's a stretch. He'll get drafted, probably somewhere in the middle rounds, and he'll have a chance to develop. But anyone drafting him in the first round would be making a monumental gamble based on potential over proven performance.
I predict Ty Simpson will be a fourth-round pick in this year's NFL Draft.